Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
3.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.2%
$22.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring formal diplomatic recognition rather than mere announcements of intent before the specified deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While official government statements serve as the primary source, the rules also allow resolution via a consensus of credible reporting, introducing some judgment if diplomatic wording is ambiguous. Note that the question title omits the specific calendar year, but the rules explicitly establish the end of 2026 as the cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether North Korea officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if North Korea officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only formal recognition by the government counts; an announcement of intentions does not suffice. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not take place within this timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily using official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used.
Key dates
- End date: — The deadline by which formal recognition must occur.
Resolution source
Official government information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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