GTA VI released by October 31?
Current price
0.25¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$90.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the qualifying condition, the precise deadline of October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and what qualifies as an official release. Exclusions such as beta versions, early access, and leaks are explicitly defined, as is the rule that a release limited to specific consoles still qualifies. The market relies directly on official statements from the game publisher or its parent company.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the United States by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released and publicly available for purchase or download in the US by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A release on select consoles alone counts toward a Yes resolution. Early access, beta versions, other pre-release availability, and leaks do not count. The market resolves to No if the game is not released under these conditions by the deadline. The resolution will be decided using official information from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for the game to be officially released in the US
Resolution source
Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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