Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$3.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies directly on official TIME magazine covers and feature articles announcing the 2026 Person of the Year. The rules clearly define how individual and group selections are handled: if TIME selects a broader group, concept, or collective title, Elon Musk would still qualify for a positive resolution if he is directly associated with the topic and pictured on an official announcement cover. A definitive cutoff date of June 30, 2027, ensures the market will resolve to No if no announcement is made.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk is named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. It includes specific provisions for shared titles and cases where an associated group or concept is chosen instead of an individual.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk is explicitly named TIME Person of the Year for 2026, including if multiple people share the title. If the Person of the Year is a concept, group, or thing, the market also resolves to Yes if Musk is directly associated with it and pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the selection. The market resolves to No if Musk does not qualify under these conditions. The market also resolves to No if TIME does not announce the Person of the Year by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the official TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 Person of the Year, with the feature article used if necessary.
Key dates
- Announcement cutoff deadline: — If no Person of the Year is announced by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year, or the TIME Person of the Year feature article
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