Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Current price
38.05¢
−1.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.05%
$71.4K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules appear to be copied from a multi-choice market on who leaves first, creating severe contradictions with the binary question. While the question asks if no one will leave the cabinet, the rules state that an announcement of an individual's departure will immediately resolve the market to Yes, which is the exact opposite of what the question implies. The rules also reference resolving to individual names or a None before 2027 outcome. Additionally, transferring to another cabinet position explicitly counts as leaving, acting officials are excluded, and the secondary resolution standard relies on a consensus of reporting rather than a single official registry.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether any member of the Trump Cabinet will depart before 2027. The market's resolution is unusual because an announcement of departure immediately resolves the market, regardless of the actual departure date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if an individual member of the Trump Cabinet announces their resignation or removal before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes the Vice President, heads of the 15 executive departments, and specific agency administrators and directors as defined in the rules. Acting officials are not included. An individual is considered to have left if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed simultaneously, the market resolves based on who leaves office first, or alphabetically by last name if they leave simultaneously. The market resolves No if no one leaves the Trump Cabinet before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback.
Key dates
- Market close date: — Eastern Time
Resolution source
official information from the Trump administration
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