Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and calculated based on the official closing share price on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and calculated based on the official closing share price on the first trading day. The designated primary source is the primary exchange's official listing page, with clear fallback mechanics if an abbreviated session occurs. A precise longstop date of December 31, 2026, is established for the non-occurrence of an IPO, leaving little ambiguity in outcome determination.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.75 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Oura achieves a market capitalization of at least $20B based on its closing share price on its first day of trading. It includes a specific fallback outcome if Oura does not complete an IPO before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Oura's market capitalization is at least $20B at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization equals the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if Oura completes its IPO by the deadline but closes below $20B in market cap. The market resolves to 'No IPO before January 2027' if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on day one, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used, or the next trading day with an official closing price if none is published. Resolution is decided using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·