Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a positive outcome: a conviction by the Philippine Senate on any articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives in May 2026, occurring on or before December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a positive outcome: a conviction by the Philippine Senate on any articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives in May 2026, occurring on or before December 31, 2026. Official government proceedings serve as the primary source, which provides an objective standard. The rules explicitly provide for early resolution to 'No' if the Senate dismisses or rejects all relevant articles without conviction, leaving little room for interpretative surprise.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
60%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte on any impeachment articles passed by the House of Representatives in May 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives in May 2026 by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if she is not convicted by this deadline. The market may resolve to No early if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all relevant articles of impeachment without a conviction. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and official government information, though credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, or other credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·