Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Current price
1.95¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.95%
$784.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules set a straightforward, text-based standard requiring the World Health Organization to explicitly use the term "pandemic" in an official public communication before the end of 2026. The criteria clearly distinguish a pandemic from a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), ensuring that a PHEIC declaration alone will not trigger a positive resolution unless the specific term is used. The primary resolution source is directly specified as official WHO statements and reports, leaving minimal room for subjective judgment or interpretative disagreement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization officially characterizes an Ebola outbreak as a pandemic by the end of 2026. A designation of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by itself is insufficient to satisfy the criteria without the specific pandemic label.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any Ebola outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying communications include official statements, reports, press briefings, or publications; declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such explicit characterization occurs within the specified timeframe. Official WHO communications serve as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff time is 11:59 PM ET for the WHO to explicitly characterize Ebola as a pandemic.
Resolution source
Official World Health Organization (WHO) communications or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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