Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Current price
3.2¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.2%
$142.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market defines clear and specific conditions for resolution. It requires full approval by the U.S. FDA for a human vaccine targeting Hantavirus (explicitly covering HPS and HFRS) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the official FDA licensed vaccines database, with credible media consensus as an auxiliary source. Note that the rules require full FDA approval rather than emergency use authorization.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a human Hantavirus vaccine receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any human vaccine protecting against Hantavirus, including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), receives full FDA approval between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such vaccine receives full FDA approval by that deadline. Resolution is determined using official FDA information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Final cutoff for FDA approval of a qualifying vaccine
Resolution source
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.