Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$3.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves to Yes upon an official announcement of an acquisition, merger, or controlling stake purchase by the December 31, 2026 deadline. Participants should note that an official announcement alone satisfies the criteria even if the deal is later terminated, blocked by regulators, or never completes. Resolution primarily relies on official statements from GameStop or eBay, though secondary reliance on a consensus of credible reporting introduces a small amount of interpretive discretion if reporting on deal terms or governance rights is disputed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an official announcement is made that GameStop will acquire, merge with, or obtain a controlling interest in eBay. Notably, a qualifying announcement triggers resolution even if the transaction is never finalized or completed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop. Qualifying transactions include deals between parent companies as well as partial sales where GameStop acquires a controlling interest, defined as ownership sufficient to control strategic decisions (typically over 50% equity or equivalent voting and governance rights). An announcement qualifies regardless of whether the transaction actually takes place. Transactions that do not confer a controlling interest do not count. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline. Official statements from eBay and GameStop serve as the primary source, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Announcement deadline: — Cutoff time for an official acquisition or merger announcement.
Resolution source
Official information from eBay and GameStop, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.