Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?
Current price
7.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.7%
$21.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market uses intricate subset-matching and tie-breaking mechanics to determine which outcome wins. A party is only counted as part of the ruling coalition if it holds at least one formal Cabinet post, which explicitly excludes parties that provide support solely through confidence-and-supply or cooperation agreements outside Cabinet. If a formed coalition is not listed exactly as an option, the market falls back to the listed option that most completely matches the coalition, with specific tie-breakers based on parliamentary seats and then popular vote. Resolution triggers upon the formal appointment of non-caretaker ministers by the Governor-General, backed by official government records in case of ambiguity, and carries a long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the governing coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election results in an outcome categorized as Other, rather than matching any of the explicitly listed coalition options.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the governing coalition formed after the election does not include all parties of any listed option, or if the ruling coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves No if a listed coalition option wins by matching the qualifying parties in the new government. To qualify as part of the coalition, a party must participate in government and hold at least one Cabinet minister; external support or confidence-and-supply arrangements without Cabinet posts do not qualify, and caretaker appointments are excluded. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no ruling coalition is confirmed by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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