Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for coalition membership, explicitly requiring a party to hold at least one Cabinet post to qualify. Parties providing confidence-and-supply or holding ministerial roles outside Cabinet do not count, which is a key distinction in New Zealand parliamentary practice that could catch some participants off guard. The resolution relies on official government confirmations from the Governor-General, backed by credible reporting, with explicit matching rules, tie-break procedures based on parliamentary seats and party votes, and a generous longstop date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market asks whether the next New Zealand governing coalition will consist of the National, ACT, and New Zealand First parties. The resolution is unusual because it prioritizes the market option that most completely matches the actual coalition, with specific tie-breaking rules.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the first ruling coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election includes the National Party, the ACT New Zealand party, and the New Zealand First Party. All three parties must participate in the governing coalition and provide at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that only support the government without holding a Cabinet post do not count. This market resolves No if the governing coalition includes some, but not all, of the National, ACT, and New Zealand First parties, or if another market option more completely matches the coalition. This market resolves Other if the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, or if the ruling coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the New Zealand government used in case of ambiguity. The market resolves once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election.
Key dates
- Scheduled General Election:
- Last Resolution Date: — If the ruling coalition is not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
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