Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish what qualifies a party as part of the ruling coalition by explicitly requiring at least one Cabinet minister post, excluding confidence-and-supply or external support arrangements. Resolution occurs once the government is officially appointed by the Governor-General following the 2026 election, with official government records resolving any ambiguities. Tie-breaker rules and multi-party matching logic are comprehensively detailed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the first ruling coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election will consist of Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, and New Zealand First, where qualification requires holding at least one Cabinet post.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes for this option if the newly formed governing coalition includes all listed parties (Labour, Green, Maori, and NZF) and no other listed option more completely matches the coalition. A party only counts if it participates in the coalition and holds at least one non-caretaker Cabinet minister post; outside confidence-and-supply agreements without Cabinet posts do not qualify. This option resolves to No if any of its listed parties are not in the coalition, or if another option provides a more complete match or wins the tiebreaker rules based on House seats or party votes. The market resolves to Other if the formed coalition does not include all parties of any listed option, or if no ruling coalition is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled General Election: — The date the general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand.
- Confirmation Deadline: — The deadline for a ruling coalition to be confirmed before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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