Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Maori + NZF?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define a governing coalition member as requiring at least one appointed Cabinet minister, explicitly excluding parties that only provide confidence and supply from outside Cabinet. In New Zealand's political system, parties frequently hold ministerial portfolios outside Cabinet or sign support agreements without formal Cabinet representation, which would disqualify them under these rules. Additionally, the market uses hierarchical matching logic where an option only resolves positively if it is the most complete match among available options, with specific tie-breaking criteria based on parliamentary seats and party votes if overlapping options exist. Resolution relies on official appointments by the Governor-General supported by credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market asks if the Labour, Te Pāti Māori, and New Zealand First parties will form the next governing coalition in New Zealand, with resolution depending on which combination of parties most accurately describes the actual coalition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the first ruling coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election includes Labour, Te Pāti Māori, and New Zealand First, and no other market option more completely matches the coalition. A party counts as part of the ruling coalition only if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties supporting the government without a Cabinet post do not count. The market resolves No if the governing coalition includes some but not all of Labour, Te Pāti Māori, and New Zealand First, and another market option more completely matches the coalition. The market resolves Other if the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Next General Election:
- Last Resolution Date: — If the coalition is not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
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