Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
Last captured price
27.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.3%
$5K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks whether the next governing coalition will include Labour and Green, but the rules enforce strict mutual-exclusivity criteria that could easily surprise readers. Resolution requires a party to hold at least one formal Cabinet post; in New Zealand politics, support arrangements where ministers sit outside Cabinet or provide confidence-and-supply are common, but are explicitly disqualified here. Furthermore, resolution follows a most-complete-match rule: if Labour, Green, and a third party form a government, this specific option resolves to No if a more complete three-party option exists, contrary to the intuitive reading of include. Government confirmation ultimately relies on official appointments by the Governor-General, backed by an explicit fallback date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Labour and Green parties will form the next governing coalition in New Zealand after the scheduled 2026 election. To qualify, a party must hold at least one Cabinet minister post under non-caretaker circumstances, excluding outside support arrangements.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes for this option if the newly formed post-election government includes all listed parties (Labour and Green) and no other market option provides a more complete match of the coalition parties. To count as part of the coalition, a party must provide at least one Cabinet minister appointed under non-caretaker circumstances by the Governor-General; outside confidence-and-supply support does not count. The market resolves to No if any listed party is excluded from the coalition or if another listed option more completely matches the governing coalition. The market resolves to Other if no listed option contains all coalition parties, or if the next ruling coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved using official information from the government of New Zealand.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election:
- Coalition confirmation deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity
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