Trump goes to space in 2026?
Current price
1.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$57.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify what counts as going to space, adopting the standard United States threshold of 50 miles above mean sea level rather than the international Karman line. The rule also explicitly requires Donald Trump to be physically aboard the craft. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named agency or flight telemetry registry, but given the high public profile of such an event, determining whether it occurred is unlikely to cause disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump travels to space during or before 2026. Resolution specifically uses the United States space threshold of 50 miles above mean sea level rather than the international Kármán line.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this market, the U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level, and crossing the internationally recognized Kármán line does not affect resolution. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not reached by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline to reach or cross the U.S. space threshold at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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