Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are clearly stated, focusing on the total number of seats won by New Zealand First in the 2026 election. The rules specify explicit tie-breaking procedures, resolving first by total party list votes and then by alphabetical order if a tie persists. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of reporting with a fallback to official New Zealand Electoral Commission data if ambiguity arises. A long resolution window extending to late 2027 allows ample time for election certification, though participants should be aware that if definitive results remain uncertified by that cutoff, the market will resolve to Other rather than waiting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the New Zealand First Party wins the most seats in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election, with specific tie-breaking rules based on party list votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the New Zealand First Party wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election. The market resolves No if any other political party wins the greatest number of seats. If there is a tie between multiple parties for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. If that also results in a tie, the market resolves in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
New Zealand Electoral Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.