Will ACT New Zealand win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the condition as winning the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 election. The rules provide specific tie-breaking mechanisms based on valid party list votes followed by alphabetical order, as well as an extended long-stop resolution date nearly a year after the expected election date. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but explicitly names official New Zealand government sources, specifically the New Zealand Electoral Commission, to resolve any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether ACT New Zealand will win the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ACT New Zealand wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 election. In the event of a tie for the most seats, resolution goes to the tied party with more valid party list votes, and then to the party whose name appears first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if another party wins the most seats under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — Date the general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand.
- Definitive outcome cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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