Will Green Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes winning the market, focusing strictly on which party secures the highest seat tally in the New Zealand House of Representatives. Clear, multi-step tie-breaking procedures are articulated using party list vote counts followed by alphabetical ordering. While the primary resolution mechanism references a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly specifies official New Zealand government sources, including the Electoral Commission, as the definitive fallback if any dispute arises. The market includes an ample buffer period extending well into 2027 to allow final official certifications.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether the Green Party will win the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 legislative election. It includes specific tiebreakers based on party list votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Green Party wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 general election. If multiple parties tie for the most seats, the tie is broken first by the greater number of valid party list votes, and second by the party name that appears first in alphabetical order. The market resolves No if any other party wins the most seats after applying any necessary tiebreakers. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — Date of the scheduled New Zealand general election.
- Definitive results deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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