Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Current price
53.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 53.5%
$20.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the market based on the seat count in the New Zealand House of Representatives following the 2026 general election. While resolution initially references a consensus of credible reporting, it specifies the official New Zealand Electoral Commission as the authoritative fallback if ambiguity arises. Comprehensive tie-breaking procedures are articulated, first checking the popular party list vote total and then defaulting to alphabetical order, minimizing the chance of an unexpected settlement outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Labour Party wins the most seats in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election. The resolution includes specific tie-breaking rules based on party list votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Labour Party wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 legislative election. This market resolves No if any other political party wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 legislative election. In the event of a tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party with a greater number of valid party list votes. If a tie still exists, the market resolves in favor of the party whose name appears first alphabetically. This market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from New Zealand government sources like the New Zealand Electoral Commission used in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
New Zealand Electoral Commission
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