Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Current price
44¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 44%
$25.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on an objective metric: which party wins the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives following the 2026 general election. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly defers to official election data from the New Zealand Electoral Commission if any ambiguity arises. Clear tie-breaking mechanics are provided based on party list vote counts and alphabetical order, and there is a generous resolution timeout extending to October 2027 to accommodate official counts and potential delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the National Party will secure the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 general election, incorporating explicit tie-breaking criteria based on popular vote and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the National Party wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another party wins the most seats. If multiple parties tie for the most seats, the tie is broken first by which party received the greater number of valid party list votes, and second by alphabetical order of the party's listed name. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date of the 2026 New Zealand general election.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results remain unknown.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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