OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market defines dissolution through three specific triggers, including an explicit threshold where more than half of member states (excluding the UAE) withdraw.
Read the full assessment
This market defines dissolution through three specific triggers, including an explicit threshold where more than half of member states (excluding the UAE) withdraw. A notable detail is that announcing or initiating a withdrawal counts immediately, even if the formal departure takes effect after the 2026 deadline. However, withdrawals strictly from OPEC+ do not qualify. While official statements from OPEC and member states are the primary authority, fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces decider discretion. The catch-all clause regarding whether OPEC 'otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity' leaves some room for interpretation if informal fragmentation occurs without explicit dissolution declarations.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026. Notably, dissolution via member withdrawal requires more than half of the members at market creation to withdraw, explicitly excluding the United Arab Emirates.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OPEC dissolves by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Dissolution is met if more than half of member states (as of market creation, excluding the UAE) officially announce or formally initiate withdrawal, if an official agreement among members terminates OPEC, or if OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. Withdrawals from OPEC+ alone do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official information from OPEC and member states, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from OPEC and OPEC member states, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·