Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Current price
5.5¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$309.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves early to Yes upon a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline or is later reversed. It also includes broad criteria allowing a Yes outcome if the individual is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties. Determining whether someone is effectively prevented from performing their duties relies on interpretation rather than purely formal constitutional milestones. While official statements from the government or the individual are primary, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, granting leeway in ambiguous political situations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lee Jae-myung leaves office as President of South Korea by December 31, 2026. Unusually, an advance announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate resolution even before the departure takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be President of South Korea for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change goes into effect. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the office also qualifies for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if these conditions do not occur within the timeframe. Resolution is decided by official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Deadline for departure, detention, incapacitation, or announcement of resignation/removal.
Resolution source
Official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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