Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
Current price
4.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.3%
$39.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market contains terms like being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties, which require subjective interpretation if an ambiguous health or political crisis occurs. Additionally, the rules include an early resolution trigger: an announcement of resignation or removal will immediately resolve the market to Yes, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline or is later reversed. While official Japanese government statements are the primary source, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if official clarity is lacking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sanae Takaichi ceases to serve as the Prime Minister of Japan by the end of 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events for a Yes resolution include an announcement of her resignation or removal made before the end date, as well as being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the position. The market resolves to No if she does not cease to be Prime Minister within this timeframe. Resolution is determined using official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — The market window closes at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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