Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly align with the standard constitutional definition of impeachment, specifically requiring a simple majority vote in the US House of Representatives passing at least one article of impeachment before noon on January 20, 2029.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly align with the standard constitutional definition of impeachment, specifically requiring a simple majority vote in the US House of Representatives passing at least one article of impeachment before noon on January 20, 2029. It explicitly clarifies that Senate trial, conviction, or removal is not required for a positive outcome. The resolution relies primarily on official US federal government records, backed by a consensus of credible reporting, leaving very little room for interpretation or dispute.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
67%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump is impeached by the US House of Representatives during his presidential term ending in January 2029.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump by simple majority vote between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Neither a trial or conviction by the US Senate nor removal from office is required for a Yes resolution. This market resolves to No if no articles of impeachment are approved by the deadline. Resolution is determined primarily using information from the US federal government, with a consensus of credible reporting used as an alternative.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·