Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
Current price
1.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$51.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market hinges on U.S. citizenship being officially rescinded, which introduces ambiguity because U.S.-born citizens typically renounce or relinquish citizenship rather than having it rescinded, creating potential confusion over whether voluntary renunciation qualifies. Additionally, resolution relies broadly on information from the United States government or a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific official registry like the Federal Register's quarterly publication of expatriates, giving the market decider significant discretion in interpreting media reports and official statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if freestyle skier Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market resolves on whether freestyle skier Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship is officially revoked by the end of 2026. The market's resolution depends on official government information or a consensus of credible reporting.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves No if her U.S. citizenship is not officially rescinded by that date and time. The primary resolution source is information from the United States government. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used to determine the outcome.
Key dates
- Market close date: — The deadline for Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship to be officially rescinded.
Resolution source
government of the United States
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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