PolymarketCloses · in 42 daysPart of MLB: 2026 American League Champion →

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Current price

18.4¢

−23.05¢ · 24h

Implied probability 18.4%
$894.8K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 17.5–68.8¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2026 American League Championship Series using Major League Baseball as the primary source. The rules explicitly allow for early resolution to No if the Cleveland Guardians are eliminated prior to or during the postseason. While the rules reference a non-existent calendar date of November 31, 2026 for postponement fallbacks, the criteria for determining the series winner through official MLB results are unambiguous and clear.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $55.2K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢17:4601:4409:4317:41
0¢20¢40¢60¢80¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
0¢20¢40¢60¢80¢Aug 1Aug 28Sep 23Oct 19

Why it moved

Down 41 points · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market fell from 62% to 22% alongside correlated movement in related ALCS outcomes, including Tampa Bay Rays, which moved in the same direction.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 43 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Tampa Bay Rays (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for sports markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Cleveland Guardians will win the 2026 American League Championship Series.

How it resolves

This market resolves to Yes if the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series. This market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for the team to win the series under Major League Baseball rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. This market resolves to Other if the series is cancelled, postponed past November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from Major League Baseball serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Key dates

  • Resolution and postponement deadline: November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as stated in the rules.

Resolution source

Major League Baseball

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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