Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Current price

80.9¢

+23¢ · 24h

Implied probability 80.9%
$549.8K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 31.5–81.15¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The resolution rules clearly state that the market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 American League Championship Series as determined by Major League Baseball. The terms permit an early resolution to "No" if the team is mathematically or officially eliminated from winning the series beforehand. If the series is cancelled or extended beyond late November 2026 without a winner, the market settles as "Other". Because sports outcomes published by the league authority are straightforward, there is little ambiguity or room for arbitrary interpretation.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $72.8K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 3 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 40 points · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The odds of the Tampa Bay Rays winning the ALCS rose from 38% to 78%, moving alongside a corresponding decline in the market for the Cleveland Guardians as the series outcomes repriced.

Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 43 days after the move hour.
1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Cleveland Guardians (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for sports markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Tampa Bay Rays will win the 2026 Major League Baseball American League Championship Series.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for the Tampa Bay Rays to win the series under MLB rules, such as being eliminated during the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the series is cancelled, postponed past November 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from Major League Baseball decides the market, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Key dates

Postponement / cancellation cutoff: Stated in rules as November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Major League Baseball, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Aug 2026, 13:12 UTC

Community forecast

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