Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether the person who wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is a woman.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether the person who wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is a woman. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single specific named URL or document, introducing minor discretion in how official party statements are compiled. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the initial resolution, preventing potential confusion if a post-convention nominee swap occurs.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
21%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether a woman will win and accept the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A notable feature is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the individual who wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president is a woman. The market resolves to No otherwise. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not change the market's resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·