Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is determined by official information from Major League Soccer regarding the winner of the 2026 MLS Cup, with consensus reporting available as a secondary reference. Holders of positions should be aware of the early resolution mechanism, which allows the market to resolve to No as soon as Toronto FC is mathematically eliminated from contention rather than waiting for the championship game. In addition, if the season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026, or fails to crown a champion by that date, the market resolves to Other rather than waiting indefinitely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Toronto FC will win the 2026 MLS Cup. It includes provisions for early No resolution if the team is mathematically eliminated and resolves to Other if the season is cancelled or delayed beyond 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Toronto FC wins the 2026 MLS Cup. The market resolves to No if Toronto FC does not win, or as soon as it becomes impossible for Toronto FC to win under MLS rules, such as mathematical elimination. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026 ET, or if no winner is declared by that deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from Major League Soccer, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Season and postponement cutoff: — Deadline by which the winner must be declared to avoid resolving to Other
Resolution source
Official information from Major League Soccer, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.