Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2026 MLS Cup as determined primarily by Major League Soccer, with credible reporting as a secondary source. The outcome is straightforward, but participants should note two specific resolution conditions: the market will resolve early to No as soon as New York City FC is mathematically eliminated from contention under league rules, and it will resolve to Other if the season is cancelled or prolonged beyond December 31, 2026 without a champion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether New York City FC will win the 2026 MLS Cup championship. An unusual aspect is that the market can resolve to "Other" if the season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026 ET, or fails to declare a winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if New York City FC wins the 2026 MLS Cup. The market resolves to No if New York City FC is mathematically eliminated or it otherwise becomes impossible for them to win under Major League Soccer rules. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed beyond December 31, 2026 ET, or no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is decided using official information from Major League Soccer, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Season and postponement cutoff: — Postponement past this date triggers a resolution to Other.
Resolution source
Major League Soccer (or a consensus of credible reporting)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.