Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has clear conditions tied to the official champion of the 2026 MLS Cup as determined by Major League Soccer. Holders should note two specific operational rules: the market can resolve early to 'No' as soon as the team is mathematically eliminated from contention under league rules, and the market will resolve to 'Other' rather than waiting if the season is canceled, postponed past December 31, 2026, or no winner is crowned by that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Austin FC will win the 2026 MLS Cup. Resolution can occur early to No if the team becomes mathematically eliminated, and resolves to Other if no winner is determined by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Austin FC wins the 2026 MLS Cup. The market resolves to No if Austin FC does not win the 2026 MLS Cup, including at any point it becomes impossible for them to win under MLS rules (such as mathematical elimination). The market resolves to Other if the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from Major League Soccer, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Season cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this date, or if postponed past it
Resolution source
Major League Soccer (with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.