Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Current price
94.3¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.3%
$431K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Holders should be aware that if neither company completes an IPO by the December 31, 2027 deadline, the market resolves 50-50 rather than remaining open indefinitely until an IPO occurs. A 50-50 split also triggers if both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date or if both become unable to IPO due to mergers or acquisitions. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible news reporting and company announcements rather than a designated regulatory database, though the core definition requiring the first sale of stock on a recognized public exchange provides relatively clear boundaries.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic or OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) first. It includes a specific 50-50 split resolution condition if neither company goes public, if both do so on the same day, or if both become unable to IPO due to events like acquisitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Anthropic if Anthropic completes an IPO before OpenAI by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to OpenAI if OpenAI completes an IPO before Anthropic by the same deadline. An IPO is defined as the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The market resolves 50-50 if neither company completes an IPO by the deadline, if both complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET), or if both become unable to complete an IPO (including via acquisition, merger, or absorption by an existing publicly traded entity). Resolution is determined by official company announcements and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Deadline by which an IPO must occur to determine the winning company before triggering fallback terms.
Resolution source
Official company announcements and a consensus of credible reporting
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