Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$9.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party will be identified for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, including explicit rules for non-major-party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous. While assessing a media consensus requires some discretion, the outcome of a standard congressional race is typically straightforward and verifiable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the WI-08 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are assigned based on their most recently stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the WI-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently stated intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm election day: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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