Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?
Current price
4.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.15%
$49.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves cleanly based on which party wins the Wisconsin 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if ambiguity arises. Clear guidelines are established for handling third-party or independent candidates, attributing them to a major party based on their stated caucusing intentions once all House races are finalized. The resolution mechanics are standard for election markets and offer minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Wisconsin's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the WI-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. It resolves No if another party's candidate wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.