Will the Democratic Party win the WI-06 House seat?
Current price
6.6¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.6%
$21.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or their stated intent to caucus by the time all House races are called. While relying on reporting consensus introduces minor decider judgment before certified results are published, the fallback to an official government authority provides a definitive backstop.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the WI-06 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation qualify as Democrats if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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