Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$26.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winner of the WA-04 congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated news desk or official authority, with the Federal Election Commission serving as a fallback if ambiguity persists. The rules include explicit instructions for determining party affiliation, stating that independent or third-party candidates will be assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent at the time all House races are called. A participant should mainly be aware of the reliance on general media consensus to call the race before certified results are published.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the WA-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties, their affiliation is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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