Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
Current price
92.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.5%
$36.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Washington's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution path relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion in determining when a consensus is reached, but the rules include a clear fallback to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission. The rules also provide specific guidance on determining party affiliation, including ballot listings and stated caucus intentions for non-major-party candidates, minimizing unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Washington's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the WA-04 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has expressed intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the market.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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