Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat?
Current price
4.1¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.1%
$26.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market tracks the winner of Utah's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an immediate official certification, with the Federal Election Commission serving as a fallback if ambiguity arises. For non-major party candidates, party attribution depends on their ballot listing or stated intention to caucus at the time all House races are conclusively called. Overall, the market mechanics align closely with the core question of whether a Democrat wins the seat.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Utah's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. Notably, candidates not listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans are classified based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate who wins the UT-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity arises, the market resolves solely based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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