Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?
Current price
4.7¢
+0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.7%
$37.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 election for Texas's 36th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are mapped to major parties via their intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup source if reporting is ambiguous. While assessing media consensus involves some judgment, congressional election outcomes in single-member districts are objective and standard, leaving very little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the TX-36 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the TX-36 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm election day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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