Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$28.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the winner of the 2026 midterm election for Texas's 31st Congressional District. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous. The rules provide specific guidance on determining party affiliation for non-major-party candidates based on ballot listing or caucusing intent at the time all House races are called. Potential delays exist if close counts or legal challenges slow down reporting or require waiting for official certification, but the outcome aligns closely with standard election results.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the TX-31 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified based on their stated caucusing intention.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the TX-31 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat under the same criteria. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome, with official United States government results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the final deciding source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The midterm elections take place on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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