Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$23.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly tracks which party wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution rules provide specific provisions for candidate party affiliation, noting that non-major party candidates will be classified by their expressed caucus intentions. The primary source relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single predetermined publisher, though an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission is specified in case of dispute. Resolution timing is tied directly to the conclusion of the election cycle.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the TX-22 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called, including their expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat is a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Day:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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