Will the Democratic Party win the TX-12 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$37.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for the TX-12 congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly address third-party or independent candidates by looking at ballot listing first and stated caucusing intentions as a backup. Outcome determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official Federal Election Commission records if reporting is ambiguous. Timing is tied to when all House races are conclusively called, which can take weeks after election day if close races undergo recounts or delayed counting elsewhere, but the resolution criteria for this specific race are unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Texas's 12th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections, including unaffiliated candidates who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-12 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if unlisted. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. A consensus of credible reporting decides the winner, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback if results are ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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