Will the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$22.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution depends on which party wins Texas's 10th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive official fallback if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation is explicitly defined by ballot listing or stated caucus intent when all House races are called. The criteria and outcome paths are standard and direct for a U.S. congressional race.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the Texas 10th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the TX-10 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently stated caucus intent if unaffiliated with either major party. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity remains, the official election results published by the Federal Election Commission serve as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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