Will the Democratic Party win the TX-08 House seat?
Current price
3.95¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.95%
$45.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 TX-08 House race. The primary resolution mechanism depends on a consensus of credible reporting without named outlets, though it includes a clear official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous. The rules also specify how party affiliation is determined for candidates not explicitly on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans, assigning them based on their most recently expressed caucus intent once all 2026 House races are called. Overall, the resolution mechanics align closely with straightforward election expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the Texas 8th Congressional District (TX-08) U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican, assessed when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party or fails to meet the Democratic affiliation criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole official fallback source in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.