Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?
Current price
1.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.35%
$47.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winning candidate's party in the 2026 midterm election for Texas's 5th Congressional District. The rules provide specific guidance on handling independent or third-party candidates by looking at their declared intention to caucus. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation about which media calls constitute consensus, but an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission provides a definitive backstop if outcomes are contested or unclear.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the TX-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called, including their expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. The resolution is based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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