Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat?
Current price
3.65¢
Implied probability 3.65%
$15.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the winning candidate for Texas's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how non-major-party affiliations and caucusing intentions are handled, determining party status at the time all House races are called. Primary resolution relies on an unlisted consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for judgment about media consensus, though it designates official Federal Election Commission reporting as a binding fallback if ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-03 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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