Will the Democratic Party win the TN-07 House seat?
Current price
3.45¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.45%
$17K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on whether the winning candidate for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The conditions cover party affiliation standards directly, including ballot listing and stated intent to caucus for candidates without a major-party label. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting designated as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns standardly with when election outcomes are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Tennessee's 7th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. Notably, independent candidates are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TN-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unaffiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a non-Democratic candidate wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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