Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?
Current price
96.7¢
+0.85¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.7%
$37.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the party of the candidate winning the Tennessee 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit instructions for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting to determine race calls once all House elections conclude, with official Federal Election Commission reporting designated as the fallback if ambiguity arises. The criteria and edge cases are clearly detailed with standard election mechanics.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Tennessee's 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate in Tennessee's 7th congressional district is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the resolution.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.