Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$12.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Tennessee's 6th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Resolution timing is tied to when all House races are conclusively called, which could introduce minor delays if other national races face recounts or prolonged counts, but the criteria for determining the winner and party attribution in this specific race are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Tennessee's 6th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates without a ballot affiliation who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the TN-06 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to another party, including candidates affiliating or caucusing with Republicans. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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