Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?
Current price
8.3¢
+3.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.3%
$39.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on the winning party of Tennessee's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent candidates based on their stated caucusing intentions. Resolution timing depends on when all House races are conclusively called, which could introduce minor delays if other districts experience recounts, but overall the outcome tracks the direct certified election result with minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the TN-05 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the TN-05 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing or by expressing intent to caucus with Democrats if unaffiliated. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity remains, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
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